Are you ready for Recession?

[Brian Turner]

I think when I first started in business in 2004 there were a number of negative economic indicators around, and I was seriously concerned about the threat of recession.

Instead, what's happened is that borrowing and debt have totally financed the last boom phase of the economic cycle, but with interest rates going up and negative economic indicators really banging their drum, are we rreally looking at a threat of economic recessiion?

And are you prepared?

http://www.ibrian.co.uk/07-06-2007/n...on-is-looming/

[DIY]

I am prepared

One of my favorite quotes of all times is "an economy built on borrowed money is an economy built on borrowed time". I can't remember who said it originally but I often think about this statement.

[magicnet]

how do you know if you're ready? what measures would you take?

[Postmaster]

Originally Posted by DIY

I am prepared

One of my favorite quotes of all times is "an economy built on borrowed money is an economy built on borrowed time". I can't remember who said it originally but I often think about this statement.

Quite good.

[JamesSmith]

I'm not expecting a UK recession.

If one where to materialise, it wouldn't affect us greatly, due to greater number of clients outside the UK.

[TheIntroducer]

One person I've always admired for his economics commentary is David Smith from the Sunday Times. He said for years the economy would continue to roll along and that house prices would continue to rise. For months I always thought he had got it wrong. Well, four years on from when I started reading his column, he has always been correct.

But last Sunday he posted a negative outlook, both on house prices and the economy....maybe he will be right again!

I haven't had a chance to read today's yet (I'm working abroad and it takes a long walk to get a Times!)

[-=seth=-]

you said in your blog;
OECD has been overvalued by as much as 65%, however the property index has never fallen by more than about 10% in a 12 month period since reliable data has been available, 65% is a good figure as far as publicity goes the papers will run with a dramatic figure like that, but i wouldnt bet the farm on it

now may not be a good time to invest but i think recession is too strong a word just a little slowed growth

[Brian Turner]

I think most people would be pretty astonished if the property market saw a 65% fall - I think the key point is that there is a general expectation of a coming "correction" in the property market. Even if stated to be over-valued after, the question is really to what degree this correction will occur.

In tandem with the rise in long-term interest rates via bond yields, the pressure on the UK property market just couldn't be greater.

[Postmaster]

Well if they are saying house prices are 65% over valued I guess the correction will bring them back to there correct price.

[Eagle]

^ Too true!